Things We Lost In The Mire 45

GERMANY/ELECTION – Chancellor Merkel suffered another electoral blow when her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party went from 23.3% in the 2011 Berlin regional election to 18% yesterday. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AFD) vote was well up at just over 14.%.

ISRAEL/IRON DOME – Israel’s rocket defence system has shot down what was described as a ‘stray missile’ fired from Syria.

TURKEY/ISIS – Turkish police have arrested several ISIS suspects who were allegedly planning to attack targets in Istanbul.

PAKISTAN/ISIS – 4 alleged members of ISIS have been arrested in Lahore. They were reported to be planning mass terror attacks.

RUSSIA/SYRIA – President Putin has claimed that Syrian rebel groups are using the cease-fire to regroup and bed themselves into better military positions.

COLUMBIA/FARC –The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) is meeting in a jungle conclave for their 10^th congress. This follows the ceasefire recently signed with the Colombian government.

COMING UP

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has, unsurprisingly, won the first national elections held since 2011/12, but it will be worth drilling down into the detailed results. Who has emerged as the main challenger, will there be protests in the wake of the election? Russia’s economic indicators are almost universally negative. On Wednesday Germany’s Vice Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, is in Moscow where he will meet Putin. Gabriel is part of the faction in German politics which favours lifting sanctions against Russia related to Ukraine. The EU meets next month to discuss the sanctions issue. Last week the Brits were in Switzerland, on Tuesday it’s the turn of EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. (See last week’s story).  He will continue the EU’s negotiations on the way ahead after the Swiss referendum which tasks the government in Bern to limit the number of EU workers allowed into Switzerland. He will not want to give any concessions to the Swiss knowing that if he does, it will embolden the British government to attempt to get the same.

DIARY

Sep 19 – Germany’s Social Democratic Party party congress.

Sep 19 – EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker meets Swiss President Johann Schneider-Ammann re Swiss vote to limit the free movement of people.

Sep 19 – U.N. Summit for Refugees and Migrants. New York.

Sep 20 – Jordan holds parliamentary elections. Watch for Muslim Brotherhood gains.

Sep 21 – Huge military parades scheduled for Iranian military in Tehran and Bandar Abbas.

Sep 21 – German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel in Moscow to meet President Putin.

Sep 21 – U.N. Sec-General Ban Ki Moon hosts summit in New York City to ensure the Paris agreement on climate change is enforced.

Sep 22 – Joint military exercises by Indian and Russian militaries in Russia’s Far East.

Sep 22 – EU trade ministers meet. France may call for a halt to Europe’s talks with the USA re the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. TATP

Sep 24 – Austria hosts meeting on immigration.

Sep 24/26 – Israel hosts China-Israel Innovation and Investment Summit.