Assad - In From The Cold

The Syrian Civil War is just about over– and the proxy war of outside powers is in full swing – this will be fought withguns and diplomacy – as the re-openingof the UAEs embassy in Damascus shows.

There’s an Arab phrase – ‘If a Wind Blows – Ride it!’ It’s been clear formore than a year that President Assad wasn’t going to lose his war – the re-openingof the embassy, after 6 long years, shows that the Arab states will now seek toride that wind, and use it their advantage.

UAE Minister Dr Anwar Gargash said the decision was necessary to combat theinfluence of Turkey and Iran. Bahrain followed suit. Sudan’s president, Omaral-Bashir, had already made the first visit by an Arab leader to Damascus sincethe start of the war.

The moves were noticed. The UK’s Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt acknowledgedthat President Assad will remain in power. That’s several steps from previous UKdemands that he had to go –  and it’s a step towards what is likely – the eventual reopeningof the British embassy.

Now there’s talk, throughout the region’s capitals, of inviting Syria to attendthe Arab League summit due to be held in Tunis in March. If Saudi Arabiaindicates it favours the move most other Arab states will fall into line.  Syria was suspended 8 years ago, if it isallowed back in from the cold there will be strings attached – which brings usback to Turkey and Iran.

President Trump’s surprise announcement last month that American troops wereto leave Syria in a hurry – made a lot of countries nervous that Iran and Turkeywould fill the gap.

The fear is that Tehran, which has spent decades cultivating ties withgroups in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, will use its positionin Syria to strengthen the network’s links.

There’s also concern that, with America out of the way, Turkey will make athird incursion into Syria to attack the US armed and trained Kurdish forces, andeven go east of the Euphrates.

U.S. diplomacy quickly kicked in. National Security Advisor John Bolton, andSecretary of State Mike Pompeo, toured Middle East capitals. Speaking in IsraelBolton insisted that Turkey must “ meet the president’s requirement that theSyrian opposition forces that have fought with us are not endangered.” An enragedPresident Erdogan responded -“We cannot accept Bolton’s messages given fromIsrael,” adding that Bolton had made a “serious mistake.”

The Kurdish forces armed by the USA are primarily the ‘Kurdish People’sProtection Units’ known as the YPG. This is the armed wing of the DemocraticUnion Party which is linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party in Turkey which Erdogansays is a terrorist group and which has carried out a decades long insurgencyagainst the Turkish state. To add to his insult to Bolton the Turkish leadersaid that the American “probably doesn’t know” who the two groups are.

Nevertheless, Bolton and Pompeo may have delayed the U.S. withdrawal – Trumpnow stating ‘I never said we’re doing it that quickly’.  The troops could stay until the end of theyear. On Friday an American commander in Syria said the withdrawal had begun,but there were no reports of any serious movements and its more likely that onlysmall amounts of cargo have been shipped out.

If it is the case that the withdrawal will be a protracted affair, the Arabstates will use the time to try and persuade Assad to cool his relationshipwith Tehran – that’s a big ask – but its why diplomatic relations are being established.