Two Hawks

Iran and the USA – two hawksmaking aggressive signals to achieve aims – while saying they don’t wantwar…  what could possibly go wrong?

The Americans have moved theAircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the Gulf along with other ‘assets. It wasgoing there anyway – what’s significant is the fanfare with which NationalSecurity Advisor John Bolton announced it. The ‘assets’ include the USS Arlington,a San Antonio-class ship which transports U.S. Marines, amphibious vehicles,conventional landing craft and helicopters.  The Americans are not about to launch anamphibious invasion of Iran from one vessel, but they have enhanced theiroptions for smaller operations including ones involving special forces.

They’ve also sent a couple of extrabombers and a Patriot missile battery – the latter is a long-range all-weatherair defence system capable of shooting down planes and missiles. B52bombers F-35s and F-15s jets are now conducting ‘deterrence flights’ over theGulf.

The firepower and fanfare sendsthe signal the U.S. is positioning itself to carry out a quick, limited aircampaign at short notice if deemed necessary. There was chatter that Iran mightthreaten shipping in the Gulf, or, its militia allies might attack U.S targetsin Iraq or elsewhere. The Americans have 5 and half thousand troops based inIraq.

Both sides knew this moment wascoming. What did Iran get from the 2015 nuclear dea? Not much. The U.S. haspulled out of it and named Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.Inward investment has dried up, oils sales are difficult, the economy is struggling.Iran had to act, not least because the Revolutionary Guard is so heavilyinvolved in various Iranian businesses….

So, massively under domesticpressure, President Rouhani says if the remaining signatories to the deal don’tfulfil their commitments within 60 days – nuclear production restarts. GivenAmerican pressure the EU states plus Russia and China are unlikely to help. TheEuropeans had devised a scheme whereby specified products could be traded with Iran viaa third party to avoid falling foul of U.S sanctions. However, devising a scheme and implementing it aretwo different things.

President Rouhani chose May 8^thto make his move – the 1^st anniversary of theU.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Iran says it will no longer limit its low-enriched uranium stockpiles to300 kilograms and will increase activity at the Arak heavy water reactor.  Tehran seems to be signalling itbelieves it can withstand a weakened economy despite knowing things are likelyto get worse.

The danger is that Iran may haveconcluded that the lessons of Libya and North Korea is that is you have anuclear weapon your regime may survive. If so – the race is on for Iran to getone – and America to stop them.

Againstthis backdrop events can escalate quickly. The limited sabotage attack on 4 oiltankers off the coast of the UAE highlights that risk. 2 of them were Saudivessels, one of which was on a voyage to deliver oil to the USA, the other 2were Emirati and Norwegian. Suspicion about the identity of the perpetratorsquickly centered on Iran.

Proof ofguilt is not yet present. If it was the Iranians then it could be taken as ademonstration of the viability of a threat the Revolutionary Guard often makes –to take action in the Strait of Hormuz and close it to shipping. Cruciallythough – it would be an action with enough ‘plausible deniability’ not to sparka war.  However, so far there is noevidence and an argument can also be made that Tehran might not wish to risksuch a provocation given that if they bring in the Americans militarily therecan only be one winner.

Iran’s 60 day deadline runs out in July – between nowand then there’s likely to be other diplomatic and military moves, and possibly‘events’. Military action? Both sides insist they don’t want that – whilstsignalling they are capable of it. So far red lines have not been crossed –restarting nuclear production in July would do so.