Kosovo: 20 Years On

Twenty years on since 50,000 NATO troops entered Kosovo theregion is still a potential powder keg.

This week marks two decades since the end of the 78-dayaerial bombing campaign which forced the Serbian army out of the province afterNATO sided with the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). The former U.S. PresidentBill Clinton was at the celebrations in Pristina the capital of what is nowrecognized as an independent state by more than 100 countries including the UK.

There is much to celebrate in both Kosovo and Serbia– an end to the mass killing and the birth of democracy. However, the ongoingtensions between the two, and indeed their neighbours, means the situation isnever more than an ‘incident’ away from escalating.

This is why 3,500 troops remain onthe ground even though several NATO members, including the USA are mulling adraw down. Western attention is at best fitful – this is a mistake. When Europetakes its eye off the Balkans things rarely go well.

Serbia and Kosovo remain hostile to oneanother to the extent that the 2018 announcement of plans for a Kosovan armybrought the threat of war from Belgrade. Several times in the past two yearsthe Serbian army has been put on full alert and even moved elite forces to theborder.

It could have been different. Losing Kosovo led to the revolution which overthrewPresident Milosevic the following year. In came a genuine liberal Zoran Djindjicwho had had called the EU “Serbia’s fresh air”. But, he announced completecooperation with the International Crimes Tribunal for the former Yugoslaviaand swore to root out organized crime from government and big business. Thisensured retaliation.

In March 2003 Djindjic was shot and killed by a sniper in Belgrade. Abullet hit him in the back, went through his heart, exited his abdomen, and hita bodyguard.  He was 51 and left behind awife, two young sons, and a divided nation.

The outside world barely noticed. It wasjust 8 days before the invasion of Iraq began. The news channels mentioned hisdeath and moved on. There was a war in Afghanistan, another was about to breakout. Following on would be the 2008 financial crash, the Arab uprisings and civilwars and then Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

Corruption surged back, democratisationslowed, and the gangs running guns, drugs, and illegal immigration into WesternEurope flourished. Now a former ultra nationalist, Alexander Vucic is President giving hope to the hard liners who still want to‘freeze’ the Kosovo question in the hope that eventually the EU will fallapart, NATO will disband, and Russia will ride to their rescue and help rebuildtheir shattered dream of ‘Greater Serbia’.

That is highly unlikely and Mr Vucic is not pushing this agenda, but those who dream of that nightmare are still playing. That includes President Putin. In January he showed up in Serbia for his third visit in 8 years to shore up both countries non-recognition of an independent Kosovo.

The situation needs a solution. One proposal to draw a line under the past involves aland swap in which Kosovo gives up territory in itsnorth which has a Serb-majority population, and Serbia gives land in Serbiawhich is Kosovan majority. It sounds attractive, but is problematic as any landswap would attract the envious attention of others inthe region. The Serbs in Bosnia might step up efforts to join their territory,Republika Srpska, into Serbia proper, a move which would be supported by thosein Belgrade who still belive in a ‘Greater Serbia’. The Albanians of Macedonia,kindred spirits of the Kosovars, might re-ignite their 2001 military effort tocreate a separate state. This in turn means both Kosovars and MacedonianAlbanians might wish to merge into a ‘Greater Albania’.

These are indeed ‘might’s’ but given the region’shistory over the past 120 years they are plausible. It follows that if theabove scenarios came to pass, then what was left of Macedonia would fall preyto division as Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria scrambled to protect theirinterests.

The outside world is still busy elsewhere,but now, after the draw down from Afghanistan, the retreat from Iraq, and apartial recovery from the financial crash, there is enough diplomatic‘bandwidth’ for the Balkans to come back onto the radar. A glance at the screenshows how much work remains to be done.