China, Hong Kong and Confucius

We are all the prisoners of history. Ourpresent and much of our future is determined by the sum of our pastexperiences, both individually and collectively.

Europe, for instance, is now a secularcontinent. But its laws, politics, philosophies and society haveJudaeo-Christian foundations. On the other side of the Eurasian landmass, thestructures of Communist China owe more to the 2,500-year-old teachings ofConfucius than to Marx and Lenin. And, if you are searching for pointers onHong Kong it is best to do so within the context of China’s long-standingreligion-cum-philosophy.

In fact, Confucianism was China’s officialstate religion until the monarchy was overthrown in 1911. It was ditched by SunYat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek as part of a drive to westernisation. Confucianismwas deemed to be too old and too Chinese to comply with the demands of modernwestern-dominated society which the Kuomintang believed China had to become tocompete and survive.

Mao Zedong was even more anti-Confucius.Attacks on the old Chinese philosopher were one of the pillars of the CulturalRevolution. Confucianism argues that authority is derived from a powerfulimperial individual. This was anathema to Mao who saw his power as coming fromthe mass of revolutionary Red Guards.

Since the death of Mao, successive Chinesegovernments have gradually moved towards Confucianism. Xi jinping is probablyits strongest proponent in a hundred years. That is not to say he worshipsConfucius. Xi is a communist and communists are atheists (at least officially).But he regularly quotes the philosopher, has set up hundreds of overseascentres which teach Confucianism; uses Confucianism as an alternative toWestern values and argues that Chinese history and culture is compatible withhis appointment as president for life and the all-embracing power of the ChineseCommunist Party.

Western society is based on the rights of theindividual. Confucius said that Chinese society should be based on the dutiesof the individual. To protect individual rights, Western societies graduallymoved towards systems of representative government. To insure that duties werefulfilled, China has always had a totalitarian system. The masses, wroteConfucius, lacked the intellect to make decisions for themselves. Everyone isnot created equal and therefore only a few have the right to participate ingovernment.

In pre-1911 China, the followers of Confuciuswere discouraged from asking questions or expressing opinions and the role ofthe merit-based civil service appointerde by the imperial court was emphasised.Under Xi, freedom of speech is denied; opinions are kept to yourself andcarefully trained party apparatchiks administer government at all levels.

Hong Kong’s position in Xi’s Confucianstructure is particularly interesting. The official phrase is “two systems inone country.” This fits in nicely with Confucianism’s emphasis on,self-discipline, moderation and compromise. The western word might bepragmatism. Confucius called it “the middle way.”

China and Hong Kong need each other. Prior tothe end of British colonial rule in 1997, Hong Kong was the main port of entryfor foreign companies seeking business in China. When the British left, it wasthought that much of the trade would shift to the six Chinese-controlled freeports led by Shanghai. Not so. In 2018, 61 percent of all foreign investment inChina went through Hong Kong. This is because any business (or person)registered in Hong Kong is protected by The Basic Law which took effect at thetime of the 1997 handover. That law is based on British law which is regardedas the international legal gold standard.

Hong Kong Basic Law also says thatcapitalism—not socialism—will be the guiding economicj policy of Hong Kong.Furthermore that Hong Kong will enjoy freedom of speech, association, assembly,procession, religion, trade unions and the right to strike. Finally, the formercolony will be governed by a legislature directly elected by universalsuffrage.

This arrangement is meant to last until 2047when Hong Kong and China will merge. It is hoped that the merger will beseamless with China moving closer towards Hong Kong’s free-wheeling capitalismand the former British colony accepting China’s heavily centralisedtotalitarianism. Unfortunately for Beijing, the millennials who willmiddle-aged in 2047 have decided to fight the merger until the bitter end. Theywant to either continue the current system of autonomy ad infinitum or secure acompletely independent Hong Kong. Any steps towards union—such as the proposedextradition treaty—will be opposed.

How will China react. At the moment there isa great deal of hot rhetoric. The commandant of the 5,000 strong Chinesegarrison in Hong Kong has issued stern warnings. The CIA has reported that anestimated 10,000 military police have gathered on the Chinese /Hong Kongborder. The West can do nothing. They did nothing during the Tiananmen SquareMassacre and the British decision to leave Hong Kong Island was based on thereluctant pragmatic view that defending it against 1.3 billion Chinese wasuntenable. Sanctions? Possibly, but the Trump Administration has alreadyimposed or threatened swingeing tariffs which are hurting American and Europeaneconomies as well. Both Germany and Britain dipped into negative growth in thelast quarter. Sanctions would further damage Western economies, possibly asmuch as or more than the Chinese.

But does that mean that the Chinese troopswill cross the border? Maybe. Maybe not. Confucius says: “if a government’sconduct is correct his government will be effective without the issuing oforders. If his conduct is incorrect, he may issue orders but they will not beobeyed.” Government is controlled by a powerful centralised ruler and thecitizens have a duty to follow his orders, but the orders, says Confucius, mustbe based on self-discipline and mutual respect. Finally, according to thetenets of Confucianism, moral force is preferred to physical for and the peopleshould be persuaded to submit willingly.

If force is necessary and is used unjustly,says Confucius, then the people have the right to rebel and remove the “Mandateof Heaven” from the government.

Tom Arms is an Anglo-American journalistwriting about foreign affairs for British, Commonwealth and American newsoutlets for nearly 50 years. He currently presents a weekly programme for USradio is writing a major work on Anglo-American relations.