While We Are Divided

Russian President Vladimir Putin may not have activelycolluded with Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential campaigns. He may nothave plotted with the Brexiteers in the referendum vote of the same year. Buthe has certainly benefited from the results—BIG TIME

Those results are an erratic president dividing America andangering European allies. On the other side of the Atlantic it is a Britainhopelessly split over membership of the EU. The turmoil in both countries isproof that even the darkest clouds contain a silver lining for someonesomewhere. In this case the main beneficiary is Russia.

Russia is Britain and America’s main foreign adversary. Itis in the interests of President Putin that the Anglo-Saxon world’s two mainpillars are distracted by domestic divisions so that he is free to conduct anincreasingly authoritarian and repressive domestic agenda and pursue foreignadventures abroad.

The end of the Cold War saw an initial change in Moscow’sattitude towards the EU and NATO. But Vladimir Putin has reversed that. Heclearly wants to re-establish Russian hegemony over Eastern Europe. The EU andNATO block that ambition. A second Cold War looms if it is not already upon us.But Washington and London are too distracted to notice or do anything about it

Many in the Trump Administration argue that China is thebigger threat. But little is being done about the growing influence of theEastern giant other than slapping a blanket of tariffs on Chinese goods whichonly rebounds on the US and world economy. In the meantime China continues toestablish its hold on the South China Sea; develop its Belt/Road Initiative;suppress human rights, block the internet and gun down demonstrators in HongKong.

The two wannabe super powers are not the only problems.North Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons and the capacity to deliverthem, despite President Trump’s “great relationship” with hereditary communistdictator Kim Jong-un. The American president wasn’t bothered by short-rangemissile tests—and tweeted accordingly. They couldn’t reach the Americanmainland. But this week Kim launched a missile from a submarine. This means henow has the capability to move the launch pads for his nuclear weapons towithin easy range of American cities. There has been no response from a WhiteHouse under congressional siege.

Iran is forging ahead with its nuclear weapons programme andis suspected of launching a drone attack on Saudi oilfields. Tehran is a Trumptarget, but only because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is callingthe shots. Europeans counselling diplomatic calm are ignored and this isplacing an even greater strains on the alliance.

In Africa relations between the two economic powerhouses—Nigeria and South Africa—are deteriorating. Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopiaare on the verge of blows over a giant Ethiopian-built dam that will affect theflow of the Nile. Islamic Jihadists in the form of Boko Haram in Nigeria and AlShabab in Somalia are destabilising East and West Africa. Libya is in the throesof a civil war with a dose of Islamic fundamentalism. Ebola has reared its uglyhead in Central Africa. More than two thousand people have died and the diseaseis spreading.

In South and Central Asia the never-ending war inAfghanistan drags on and on. Pakistan is leaning ever more towardsfundamentalism and in hock to the Chinese. The disputed Kashmir region is undermartial law. About two million people who fled Bangladesh in 1971 are on theverge of being made stateless and the Rohingyas continue to be oppressed inMyanmar.

In Eastern Europe, former Soviet Bloc countries areundermining the values of the EU with growing restrictions on the judiciary andthe press as well as stringent anti-immigration laws. The German economy isfaltering.. The European Central Bank is talking about negative interest rates.Spain has had four governments in four years and Italy is suffering an identitycrisis.

Most of Central America appears to be run by criminal gangswho are driving the population to seek sanctuary in the US where Donald Trumphas proposed shooting them in the legs to stop them from crossing the border.FARC has returned to the bush and the gun in Colombia. Brazil is literallyburning. The Argentine economy is a mess. Peru is in a political crisis withtwo politicians claiming the presidency and a third resigning 24 hours afterbeing named interim leader. Venezuela, of course, is a political and economicdisaster area.

Hanging over all of the above is climate change. Scientistsare issuing dire warnings that the Earth is heating up faster than expected.Polar ice caps are rapidly melting. Glaciers are disappearing. Sea levels andtemperatures are rising. Storms are increasing. Island nations and coastalcommunities are slipping under the waves. A 15-year-old Swede has become theposter girl for climate change activists. Climate sceptic Trump has respondedto Greta Thunberg’s fame with his usual personal insults.

All the above may be interpreted as a call to just getBrexit over and done with and drop impeachment proceedings in the US so Borisand Donald can get on with the job of saving the rest of the world. Thatinterpretation would be wrong. Neither Boris nor Donald are capable of dealingwith world problems because they are self-serving, narcissistic politicians whoequate the national interest with their personal political gain and areprepared to right roughshod over the rule of law in pursuit of questionableends.

A solid domestic base is a prerequisite to an effectiveforeign policy. The only way that America—and junior partner Britain—canre-establish their pre-eminence in world affairs is by ending the divisions intheir country. In America that is best done by legally removing Donald Trumpfrom office as soon as possible. In Britain it should be achieved by ending thenational pursuit of unicorns and resuming the country’s rightful place inEurope.

Tom Arms broadcasts on foreign affairs for US Radio, regularly contributes to Lib Dem Voice, lectures and is working on a book on Anglo—American relations which is due to be published next year.