That Time of Year

It’s that time of year again. No, I don’t mean theseason of good will, holly, mistletoe, reindeer, white-bearded elves, andmidnight mass. I mean the time to look back and forward at the world politicalscene. And there is so much to write and so little space.

Britain has just had its Christmas election.America has had its Christmas impeachment. Hong Kong is still in turmoil. Latin America is going through another of its political crises. TheChinese economy is shrinking. America’s Democratic Party cannot decide whichway to go. Iran, Iraq and the Lebanon are rioting, so are the French. The Eurozonehas had a terrible year. Putin is as belligerent as ever. Turkey is becomingmore obstreperous and Israel can’t reach agreement on a coalition government.

Boris Johnson’s landslide victory has for themoment put paid to the Brexit debate. He claims that his historic 80-seatmajority on the sound bite slogan “Get Brexit Done” is a massive mandate forleaving the EU. That is an over-simplified misrepresentation. Opinion pollsreport that the country continues to be split almost 50/50 between remain andleave. The election result was as much—it not more—of a reflection of distrustof an ideologically-driven Labour Party than it was a vote on Brexit.

So Brexit is likely to remain a big issue with thefocus shifting to the prime minister’s renewed No Deal threat if free tradetalks are not concluded by this time next year. They are other worryingmessages coming out of 10 Downing Street: A review of the relationship betweenthe government and the courts and the role of the media are two indicationsthat Boris Johnson will use his enhanced power to stifle dissent and moveBritain to a more presidential style of government.    

Unfortunately, Boris won’t be facing much in theway of an official opposition. The Labour Party is set for a bitter civil warbetween the far-left ideologues of Momentum who blame Labour’s defeat oneveryone but themselves, and the more pragmatic wing who want a return to theold New Labour. The current election rules as set down by the partyconstitution put the Corbynistas and Momentum  in pole position. This means a longer and more vicious blood-letting than previousleadership battles and raises the spectre of a Labour split and an open goalfor the conservative government.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Donald Trump hasthis week become the third president in American history to be impeached.Because voting in both houses of Congress has become totally partisan, it ishighly unlikely that Trump will be found guilty by the Republican-controlledSenate. But has his 2020 re-election been hindered or helped by impeachment?That question cannot be accurately answered until all the evidence has beenpresented in the Senate trial. So far everything that the House ofRepresentatives has heard is second or third hand. This is because the presidenthas refused to allow any White House officials to testify. There will be abattle royal to force into the Senate witness box.  

Of course, The Democrats still have to put up acredible alternative to Trump and back them. So far no clear alternative haspresented him (or her) self. They could, however, look towards the UK electionresults for some pointers. The British voters rejected an ideologically-drivenLabour agenda based on envy with a large dash of class hate. They were moreconcerned with the practical realities of life and fear of higher taxes andbureaucratic inefficiency, and the Tories projected the image of delivering inthat sphere.

China has a few problems.  And when theworld’s second largest economy has problems than it affects the rest of us. Theproblems centre on American tariffs and Hong Kong. At the end of 2019, thegrowth rate in the Chinese economy was its lowest for 29 years—6.2 percent.Economists are projecting an even lower rate for 2020—5.5 percent. This is badfor the rest of us because it means that the Chinese will have less money tobuy goods and services from elsewhere in the world. The pro-democracy riots aremaking a difficult situation worse. The economy of the former British colonyshrunk by thee percent in the third quarter of 2019 and is likely to continueto do so in the New Year. Hong Kong is a major trade channel for MainlandChina. There is also the danger that the political discontent in Hong Kongcould spill over into other parts of China such as Xinjiang. The Chinese peopleare quite happy to leave most matters in the hands of the communist party—aslong as they are delivering on the economic front.

Never stable Latin America is already plagued withthe political fallout from its economic problems. Expect more, especially inArgentina and Brazil. Four years ago Argentina’s Mauricio Macri inherited aneconomic basket case from the Peronists. He tried to sort it out with a toughausterity package and failed. The result was that the Peronists returned topower in October elections. Brazil has its own problems with populist leaderJair Bolsanaro who revels in the title of Latin American Trump. His love affairwith the US president is, however, proving one sided. Last month Trumpannounced he would impose tariffs on Brazilian steel and aluminium becauseBrazil’s poor economic performance was driving down Brazilian prices oninternational markets.

President Emmanuelle Macron has high hopes for theleadership role of the EU as Angela Merkel prepares her exit. But before heassume that role he needs to strengthen his domestic base which has been shakenby the yellow vest demonstrations over fuel prices and the possibly moredamaging riots and strikes over proposed changes to the country’s pensions. Thechanges are necessary and long overdue, but a hard political sell. In themeantime, growth in the Eurozone has shrunk to 1.1 percent and is expected togo lower in 2020 as Brexit starts to bite.

In the Middle East there is a damaging end of yearcrescent arc of violence stretching from Iran through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.Iran is reeling from US sanctions. Syria is still fighting a civil war with thenow added problem of Turkish interference and occupation, and Lebanon and Iraqappear to be sliding into chaos on the back of endemic corruption. The problemsof the Middle East are compounded by Israel’s political deadlock and The TrumpAdministration’s abrogation of its role as honest broker.

On that happy note, it only remains to wisheveryone a Happy Christmas and Prosperous New Year.