The End of an Era?

For the past few years it has felt as if the world wason the verge of a major change. Cracks had appeared in the liberal, uni-polarworld order that was established in the aftermath of the Cold War. This systemhad largely been built on the assumption that prosperity leads to peace, andthat more democracy, globalization, and integration would create moreprosperity. Many subscribed to this logic, and during the 1990s and 2000s theresults largely spoke for themselves. Democracy spread throughout the world,new technologies permitted the exchange of goods, services, people, and financein record numbers, and multinational organizations expanded their membershipsas well as their scope. At the same time, the world was getting richer.Free-trade, investment, and aid helped lift millions of people worldwide out ofpoverty, and into the middle classes. As advertised, this proliferation ofwealth also ushered in an era of relative peace. With the Soviets vanquished,the United States stood head and shoulders above the rest; the architect andguarantor of this new system. It seemed that after all the horrors andbloodshed of the twentieth century, the world was finally ready to move on. AsFrancis Fukuyama famously observed, the “End of History” was in sight.

Not exactly…

In hindsight, the warning signs were there. Some ofthem were explicit; the break-up of Yugoslavia and the carnage that followedproved that war hadn’t disappeared. Some were more opaque, and thus easy to dismiss or explain away. Democracymay have failed to take root in China and many of the former Soviet republics,but this was bound to change. The argument went that as their standard ofliving improved, and Western influence became more pronounced, citizens would demandgreater representation in government. This of course was not the case, but atthe time no one seemed interested in the truth. Prosperity was the name of thegame, and as long as your lot in life was improving the occasional glitch inthe system could be forgiven. This all changed after 2008.

The global financial crisis exposed the unwelcometruth that the system in place since the end of the Cold War is not perfect,and that its pillars of democracy, globalization, and integration have theirlimits. The Western democracies were no less susceptible to the shocks of 2008than other forms of government. Globalization has made it cheaper and easierthan ever before to travel, trade, and invest, but it has also cost millions ofworkers their livelihoods through outsourcing and deindustrialization. Nationsare willing to accept integration, both political and economic, as long aseveryone is making money. However, when times get tough, they stillinstinctively look inwards as their priorities swiftly realign. All of theserealities were brought to light by the crisis in 2008, and in the years thatfollowed things have gone from bad to worse.

The standard of living in China has continued to rise,but there has been little appetite shown for democratic government. Democracyhas proven ineffective in new footholds such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Even moreworrisome are signs emanating from Europe where the democratic institutions ofplaces like Poland, Hungary, and Turkey are being hollowed out by conservative,right-wing politicians with autocratic leanings.

Globalization has undoubtedly brought jobs and a risein living standards to the developing world and made a select few individualsextremely wealthy. Its benefits have been far from universal however, and manyfeel as though they’ve been left behind. It has exacerbated tensions bysqueezing the West’s middle classes who have seen their jobs disappearoverseas. As a result, it has widened the chasm between the rich and the pooras well as the urban and rural, and created a dangerous disconnect betweenpoliticians and the people they govern.

Meanwhile, international integration projects continueto unravel at an alarming pace. Bickering between NATO member states has becomea common theme as the organization struggles to redefine its purpose. The E.U.is fraught with tensions between north and south as well as east and west.Economic policies lie at the heart of north/southsquabbles while differences of opinion on values, sovereignty, and Russiadivide east and west. The questions of immigration and freedom of movement willcontinue to cause friction within the block, and so too will the role andinfluence of China on the old continent. Other organizations that havesupported the system over the years like the WTO, the World Bank, and the IMFappear ill-equipped to address the problems of today.

Worst of all, the relative peace we’ve enjoyed overthe last few decades looks increasingly precarious. A resurgent Russia hasflexed its muscles in Georgia, Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine. Tensions betweenIran and the U.S. have threatened to boil over on occasions. The wars in Libya,Syria, and Yemen rumble on, and have drawn in a lengthy list of foreign powers.The Chinese continue to probe in the South and East China seas, testing theboundaries of their neighbors’ patience as well as the resilience of theAmerican led alliance system in the Pacific. Throw in trade disputes, protectionism,and climate change and the situation looks bleak.

All of this points to a system already under severeduress at a time when it is facing its greatest challenge. The Coronavirus hascaused fear throughout much of the world, and nobody knows how long thepandemic will last. What is clear though is that the measures necessary tocombat the virus have ground the system to a halt. Borders are being closed,and nations are withdrawing into themselves. The movement of people, goods, andservices is down to a trickle. Divisions are once again rearing their ugly headin multinational organizations like the E.U., and governments of all sorts(including democracies) are having their preparedness, transparency, andresponsiveness questioned.

Could the Coronavirus be the final nail in the coffin of a system at its limits? The virus has shaken people’s belief in its very foundations, and whether that faith can be restored is anyone’s guess. The world is experiencing a collective burnout, and how we respond will be pivotal in shaping our future. The Coronavirus has deeply affected us all, but the full extent of its impact will not be known until we see what emerges next.

Rob Burger is a Canadian working in Ukraine.