Sino-American COVID Diplomacy

It is difficult to tell who is winning the Sino-AmericanCoronavirus diplomatic battle. Two weeks ago, I would have put the US in thelead. They had successfully poured ice water on Chinese claims to havesuccessfully suppressed the spread of the virus in China. It is now generallyaccepted that the Chinese statistics are extremely dubious.

This week the pendulum has swung the other way. The reasonis the annual meeting of the World Health Assembly which—unsurprisingly—wasdominated by the pandemic.

The pendulum received a gentle push from the European Unionwhich successfully proposed a full and independent investigation into thecauses, spread, handling and consequences of coronavirus as well as a reportinto how best to deal with a repeat crisis.

On the surface, this would appear to be a victory for theTrump Administration who have been loud on their accusations—despite allevidence to the contrary– that COVID-19 originated in a Wuhan virology labfrom whence it reached the community by accident or intent. The Chinese havebeen even more outrageous with their leading conspiracy theory: Americadeveloped the virus and despatched US military personnel to Wuhan to spread a COVIDpaste on hundreds of Chinese doorknobs.

The EU proposal carefully avoids pointing an accusing fingerat any party. Its primary purpose is to learn lessons so that future mistakesare avoided. But any investigation will have the secondary effect ofundermining conspiracy theories which will make President Donald Trump and hisSecretary of State Mike Pompeo look ridiculous.

China is not the only target of the Trump Administration.They are also attacking the World Health Organisation (WHO) which they accuseof being a pawn of Beijing. Part of the reason for this attack is that Chinaand the WHO were slow in identifying the virus, going public with theirconcerns and declaring a pandemic.

The exact date of the first case is unknown. It was probablyin November. But is almost certain is that at the start doctors had no ideawhat it was; how contagious it was; how serious it would become or even when itwas transmitted from human to human. How could they know? They had noexperience of COVID-19. It did not exist in humans anywhere in the world beforeNovember-December 2019.

It is true that there were initial, short-lived, attempts at a cover-up. The sad case of whistleblowing doctor, Li Wen Liang, is the most poignant example. But the public reaction and political and economic consequences of previous epidemics doubtless made the Chinese wary of the dangers of over-reacting until they were certain of the threat to public health. Other governments have been less than transparent in their handling of the crisis. Boris Johnson’s government is being accused of massaging statistics on testing and tracking and protection of vulnerable patients in care homes.

There is, however, a much wider issue. Coronavirus is being used by both Washington and Beijing to tout the superiority of their competing political systems by attacking the other. Governments around the world are being asked to back either the American or Chinese version of the pandemic in the full knowledge that their position will have a knock-on effect on business and military support from one of the two powers. It’s a bit like the old Soviet-American Cold War.

Tom Arms is a regular contributor.