Where is Kim?

Where isKim Jong-un? Is he alive? Is he dead? Has the obese 36-year-old with a weirdhaircut had a stroke or heart attack? Has the coronavirus pandemic forced himinto a secret lockdown? Does he have coronavirus? Has he been the victimof a palace coup?   

The questionsare being asked because the North Korean leader failed to make anappearance on 13 April at one of the most important annualcelebrations in the country’s political calendar– the birthdayanniversary celebrations for his grandfather—Kim il-Sung. 

All theabove questions are important. But even more important is who is likely tosucceed him and what would a post-Kim world look like?  

Thecurrent front-runner to succeed as leader of theDemocratic People’s Republic of Korea is “Dear Leader’s” littlesister, 32-year-old Kim Yo-jong.  The main reason is thatthe running of the highly secretive and oppressive communist regime is a familyaffair and the little sister is Km Jong-un’s closest family. However, there aresome issues with the sibling. First of all, Kim Yo-jong, is awoman in a highly patriarchal society. 

If thePolitburo want to stick to the male line, then there is an option in the formfor much older (65) half-brother Kim Pyong-il.  The elder Kim has onlyrecently returned to Pyongyang after a lifetime of bouncing around Europe’scapitals as a career ambassador.  However, Ambassador Kim’s travels wereless of a career choice than a diplomatic exile as he was reported tobe estranged from the rest of the family.     

Anotherreason for possibly choosing Ambassador Kim is thatsister Kim Yo-jong was blamed for the abject failure of theUS-North Korean Talks in Hanoi at the end of February 2019. If Yo-jong hasa speciality it is public relations and she is believed to have been given thetask of constructing a diplomatic formula that gave the appearanceof a successful negotiation even if the two sides remained as far apart asever. She failed dismally. The final sessions were cancelled andboth sides refused to sign a communique.  

Yo-jong andher brother are said to have a close relationship which dates back to theirstudent days at the exclusive Liebfeld School in Switzerland.  Shemade her public debut at their father’s funeral in 2010, but wasnot mentioned by name in any North Korean communiques or news reportsuntil two years later when she was filmed with her brother visiting a militaryriding school.  

Two yearslater she formally started her rise through the family business whenshe was named head of the Propaganda and Agitation Department.  In2017 she was made an Alternate member of the ruling Politburo and is rumouredto have taken control of the country’s powerful secret police. Then camethe disastrous Hanoi Summit which resulted in Yo-jong being droppedfrom the Politburo.  

However,her brother’s no-show at their grandfather’s birthday anniversary celebrations,led to her reinstatement; this time as afull  Politburo member with the added title of DangJoon-ang, or designated successor; all of which fuelled rumours thatKim Jong-un was on the way out or gone. It would seem that the NorthKorean leadership is wedded to the principle of a dynastic communist leadershipwhich trumps any anti-feminism.  

It isunlikely that a female Kim in power will result in any major policychanges. She is credited with manufacturing the cult of personality aroundher brother and will probably continue that so that it can be extended toherself and eventually her five-year-old son by a North Koreanmilitary official. There is likely to be a blood-letting ofPolitburo members—literally. She and her brother have already startedreplacing their father’s generation with their own younger acolytes.  

The possibility of an early nuclear disarmament agreement with the US is unlikely. Kim Yo-jong will need to be fully secure in her power base before she came make any major foreign policy changes.  If there is to be any improvement on either the North Korea or domestic front  it is more likely that it will come from Kim Jong-un. So, please , Dear Leader, accept my wishes for a speedy recovery.  

Tom Arms is a regular contributor.