Start Talks Start

US-Russian talks started this week in Viennabetween the US and Russia to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty whichexpires in February. 

Negotiators face massive obstacles—for lots ofreasons. 

For a start Presidents Trump and Putin are fond oftheir nuclear toys. They have both effectively scrapped the 1987Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) and announced a significantinvestment in new nuclear weapons.  

Both men are keen on the more “bang for the buck”theory of nuclear war. 

The other big reason the talks are headed forfailure is the Trump Administration’s insistence that China is included in thenegotiations. China’s nuclear arsenal is minuscule (300 warheads compared to anestimated 6,185 American and 6,800 Russian). But the Americans view the Chineseas the greater medium to long-term threat to American interests. 

The French and British nuclear deterrents have beenaccounted for in the complex alphabet soup of Soviet-American nuclear weaponsaccords. But France and Britain are American allies. China and Russia are—atthe moment—close—but not allied. The Chinese argue that if they are includedthen why not also India, Pakistan, Israel and possibly even Iran. This would,of course, turn negotiations into an incomprehensible farce as each country hasa different strategic reason for its nuclear deterrent.

START was the final building block in the US-Sovietnuclear arms negotiations which were first mooted by President Lyndon Johnsonin 1964 in the aftermath of the terrifying Cuban Missile Crisis. Propernegotiations finally started in 1967 and in 1972 bore fruit with theAnti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the first Strategic Arms Limitation(SALT I ) Treaty. SALT Two was blocked by the US Senate following the Sovietinvasion of Afghanistan. For various reasons, there was no approved StartTreaty until the New Start Treaty in 2011. It is that treaty which is up forrenewal. 

There are all sorts of complicating factors facingnegotiators in Vienna other than the participation of China. Both sides accusethe other of breaching existing agreements and both have been busy developingnew weapons systems and strategies. President Trump was recently reported to beconsidering resuming nuclear tests as a means of forcing concessions from bothRussia and China. Many nuclear experts believe that this could open the floodgates to a fresh nuclear arms race. 

Vladimir Putin has been loud in extolling theadvances of Russia’s strategic arsenal. These include a cruise missile withunlimited range; hypersonic missiles armed with multiple warheads that move sofast that they are virtually undetectable to anti-ballistic missile defencesand a nuclear torpedo capable of creating a 500-metre high radioactive tsunami.

The talks are further complicated by domesticpolitics in both countries. In an election year, Donald Trump cannot afford tobe seen by his base as soft on defence. And Vladimir Putin needs to justify theconstitutional changes that will make him effectively president for life. Andboth men need to re-establish their political credibility in the wake of thecoronavirus pandemic. 

Tom Arms is a regular contributor and author of The Encyclopedia of the Cold War